Double · two matches: Union Berlin — Schalke · Rennes — Marseille

The first match in the parlay is the clash between Union Berlin and Schalke. The expected score according to the model is 1.7 : 1.4, indicating a total of around 3.1 goals. In recent games, Union Berlin has shown high scoring: they concede an average of 2.3 goals per match and score 1.5. Additionally, 83% of their home matches end with a total over 2.5, and both teams score in 67% of cases. Schalke, despite issues in attack, also demonstrates a tendency for a high number of cards: the model predicts about 4.2 yellow cards per match, while referee Timo Gerach averages 4.6 cards per game. Considering the motivation of both teams — as they are fighting for survival — a bet on total yellow cards over 3.5 (TB 3.5) seems justified.

The second match is between Rennes and Marseille. Rennes is in excellent form with two consecutive wins and a total goal count above 2.5 in their last ten matches, which is significant. They score first in every match, and the expected total according to the model is around 2.6 goals with a probability of TB 2.5 at only 48%. Marseille, on the other hand, has squad issues: key players are missing due to injuries, which may affect their attacking actions. However, the team still shows decent scoring ability, although both teams have scored only half the time in their encounters. Taking all factors into account, a bet on Rennes' individual total over 1.5 (TB 1.5) seems quite logical.

In conclusion, we take Total yellow cards over 3.5 (TB 3.5) in the Union Berlin — Schalke match and Rennes' individual total over 1.5 (TB 1.5) against Marseille for an overall odds of 2.94.