Sabalenka, Aryna — Noskova, Linda

A bet on the total games over 21 in the match between Sabalenka and Noskova seems quite justified. The match model predicts that the game will be tense, with a roughly 60% chance of exceeding this total. Aryna Sabalenka has been performing excellently this season, boasting a record of 44-8 and 30-3 on hard courts. She has confidently won all her matches at the US Open without dropping a set, indicating her strong form.

Linda Noskova is also keeping pace with a 10-match winning streak. Despite her recent losses to Kruger and Montgomery, she has been showing good play, especially after victories over Marta Kostyuk and Ann Li. Her record this season stands at 34-13, further confirming her competitiveness on hard courts.

In their head-to-head encounters, Sabalenka leads 2-0, but that doesn't mean Noskova can't put up a fight. Considering her recent successes and her title as Wimbledon champion, she will be geared up for a serious battle. Both athletes are expected to display a high level of play, which could lead to a large number of games.

Taking all these factors into account, the bet on total games over 21 seems logical. The odds of 1.73 are quite justified in terms of probability.