Zverev, Alexander — Shelton, Ben

A bet on the total games being under 42.5 in the match between Zverev and Shelton seems quite justified. The match model indicates that the expected score could be close to 3:0 or 3:1 in favor of Zverev, which suggests a relatively low number of games. The expected number of games according to the model is within the range of 40-42, making the bet on under 42.5 quite logical.

Alexander Zverev is currently in excellent form. He has won his last four matches without dropping a set, which speaks to his confidence and powerful play. His opponent Ben Shelton is also playing good tennis, but in their head-to-head encounters, Zverev leads 5-0. This adds confidence that Zverev will be able to control the flow of the match.

Shelton is not an easy opponent either — he has a record of 25-6 on hard courts this season and recently won a title in Montreal. However, his playing style may not suit an experienced opponent like Zverev, who knows how to exploit weaknesses and finish matches quickly.

Taking all factors into account, including player form and their previous encounters, one can expect that the match won't drag on and the total games will remain below 42.5. A bet on under 42.5 at odds of 2.09 looks quite attractive and probabilistically justified. Let's go for it!